Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 0.195729 0.228462 0.264381 0.306637 0.354902 0.408224 0.471503
2025-11-02 0.140265 0.184181 0.237537 0.306732 0.393650 0.498727 0.634842
2025-11-09 0.108085 0.154983 0.216416 0.301931 0.416883 0.564919 0.768638
2025-11-16 0.086562 0.133718 0.199515 0.296626 0.434594 0.621547 0.891520
2025-11-23 0.069495 0.114867 0.181878 0.286078 0.441506 0.661663 0.993076
2025-11-30 0.063055 0.110343 0.183594 0.302530 0.487178 0.758327 1.180430
2025-12-07 0.052537 0.097435 0.170418 0.294164 0.494060 0.798213 1.287484
2025-12-14 0.043955 0.086192 0.158072 0.285042 0.497911 0.832666 1.387716
2025-12-21 0.037434 0.077400 0.148430 0.278801 0.505055 0.871853 1.497152
2025-12-28 0.033672 0.073028 0.145747 0.283847 0.530932 0.942335 1.660859
2026-01-04 0.031031 0.070364 0.145705 0.293342 0.564955 1.028297 1.855443
2026-01-11 0.028432 0.067346 0.144548 0.300497 0.595201 1.109737 2.047631
2026-01-18 0.025580 0.063437 0.141353 0.303792 0.619380 1.183670 2.234432
2026-01-25 0.022686 0.058964 0.136465 0.303268 0.636460 1.246557 2.406921
2026-02-01 0.019815 0.054015 0.129886 0.298485 0.644718 1.293815 2.554427
2026-02-08 0.017307 0.049462 0.123494 0.293234 0.651322 1.338126 2.699087
2026-02-15 0.014780 0.044370 0.115168 0.282795 0.646287 1.359792 2.802748
2026-02-22 0.014305 0.044523 0.118876 0.299077 0.697658 1.493158 3.125530
2026-03-01 0.012398 0.040449 0.112028 0.290797 0.696404 1.523304 3.251856
2026-03-08 0.010707 0.036629 0.105230 0.281769 0.692532 1.547647 3.367979
2026-03-15 0.009375 0.033579 0.099919 0.275594 0.694243 1.583186 3.508228
2026-03-22 0.008691 0.032371 0.099228 0.280587 0.721527 1.673373 3.764188
2026-03-29 0.008245 0.031833 0.100260 0.289984 0.759705 1.788875 4.078666